Apr 22, 2026
Brazil Corn Estimate Unchanged at 134.0 Million Tons
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
I am on the low end of the estimates for the 2025/26 Brazilian corn crop because I am concerned about developing dry weather in the southern safrinha corn area as the summer rains start to decline. Limited rainfall last week favored western and northern Brazil including western Parana and western Mato Grosso do Sul. Rainfall this week should also favor western and northern Brazil with continued dryer weather in central and eastern Brazil. Above normal temperatures are expected in most areas, allowing stress to build on safrinha corn.
In central Brazil, several rounds of rainfall will be needed until mid-May to ensure adequate yields. In later planted areas, rainfall will be needed until early June.
Approximately 40% of the safrinha corn crop could be at risk of moisture stress as the summer rainy season starts to diminish. This would especially be a concern where the corn was planted later than desired. The areas of main concern are the states of Parana, Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias, and Minas Gerais.
Collectively, there could be at least 4-6 million tons at risk due to potential dry conditions. If 40% of the corn had a yield reduction of 10%, that would equate to a loss of 4 million tons. If 40% of the crop had a yield reduction of 15%, that would equate to a loss of 6 million tons. Good yields in the northern safrinha area could compensate for potential losses in the southern area, but that remains to be seen.
Mato Grosso - The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso is generally in good condition except for the southeastern part of the state where additional rainfall is needed. Much of the earliest planted corn is past pollination and filling grain. The latest planted corn is pollinating. The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso should be the highest yielding of any state in Brazil.
Parana - The safrinha corn in Parana was 55% in vegetative development, 34% pollinating, and 11% filling grain as of earlier last week. The corn is rated 4% poor, 11% average, and 85% good. The state received some rain earlier last week, but the forecast for the next 10 days is for hot and dry conditions.
Goias - The state of Goias had probably the most safrinha corn planted after the ideal planting window had closed with an estimated 60% of the corn planted later than desired. Central Goias received rain last week, but southern Goias has been one of the driest regions in Brazil recently, which is impacting the corn development.
Mato Grosso do Sul - Farmers in Mato Grosso do Sul planted approximately 2.2 million hectares of safrinha corn according to Aprosoja/MS, which is up about 3% compared to the previous cycle. The expected average yield is 84.2 sacks per hectare (80.3 bu/ac), which represents a reduction of 22.4% compared to 2024/25. Production is estimated at 11.1 million tons, down 20.1% compared to the prior harvest.
Conab is estimating the safrinha corn crop at 109.1 million tons, the first crop is estimated at 27.9 million and the third crop is 2.4 million for a total of 139.5 million tons. Below are Conab's most current estimates for the safrinha corn production.
2025/26 Brazil Safrinha Corn Production*
| State | Estimated Production in Million Tons | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Mato Grosso | 53.9 | 49.4% |
| Parana | 18.0 | 16.4% |
| Mato Grosso do Sul | 12.3 | 11.2% |
| Goias | 10.5 | 9.6% |
| Rondonia | 2.6 | 2.3% |
| Sao Paulo | 2.6 | 2.3% |
| Minas Gerais | 2.4 | 2.1% |
| Tocantins | 2.2 | 2.0% |
| Others | 4.6 | 4.2% |
| Total | 109.1 | < |
*Based on Conab’s 2026 April Crop Report.